OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-32 maps key output, consumption and trade trends

Production growth to slow in step with population, while geopolitical tensions, climate change, animal and plant diseases and price volatility pose long-term uncertainty

Global agricultural and food production is projected to continue to increase over the next ten years but at a slower pace of growth than the previous decade due to demographic trends, according to a report released by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032 is the critical global reference for medium-term prospects for agricultural commodity markets. While uncertainty has risen due to geopolitical tensions, adverse climate trends, animal and plant diseases and increased price volatility for key agrarian inputs, global production of crops, livestock products and fish are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.1 per cent during the period, half the pace recorded in the decade ending in 2015. Total food consumption is expected to rise by 1.3 per cent per annum to 2032, indicating an increase in the share of agricultural commodities used as food.

These projections assume a fast recovery from recent inflationary pressures, normal weather conditions, no major policy changes and on-trend evolution in consumer preferences. The possibility is that persistent inflationary pressures pose downside risks to global food demand and production.

In a special assessment of key farming input prices, which have risen significantly in the past two years, Outlook calculates that every 10 per cent increase in fertiliser prices leads to a 2 per cent increase in food costs, with the burden falling hardest on the poor, who spend a larger share of their budget on food. The Outlook highlights the importance of policies to ensure greater efficiency and resilience.

“The broad trends outlined in this report are heading in the right direction but need to be accelerated,” QU Dongyu, FAO Director-General said. “Promoting a faster shift to sustainable agrifood systems will bring many benefits and help usher in better lives for all, leaving no one behind.”

“Surges in agricultural input prices experienced over the last two years have raised concerns about global food security,” Mathias Cormann, OECD Secretary-General said. “Investments in innovation, further productivity gains and reductions in the carbon intensity of production are needed to lay the foundation for long-term food security, affordability and sustainability.”

The Outlook offers decadal projections for cereals, vegetable oils, dairy products, meat, sugar, and fish, as well as cotton, tropical fruits, pulses and agricultural output used for biofuels. It also includes projections for expected regional trends in greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and incorporates first-time preliminary analyses of the role of food loss and waste.  

Production growth to slow in step with