In 2025, India’s agricultural exports outperformed a slowing global economy not by riding price cycles, but by rewiring trade geography through FTAs—using diplomacy to redirect volumes, capture value, hedge tariffs, and position agriculture as a core instrument of economic and geopolitical strategy.

India’s agricultural export performance in 2025 marks a quiet but consequential shift in the country’s trade story. At a time when global food prices softened, advanced economies turned inward, and U.S. tariffs bit sharply into key farm categories, India’s agri-exports did not merely hold ground — they outperformed the rest of the economy.

Between April and September 2025, agricultural exports rose 8.8 per cent year-on-year to $25.9 billion, compared with a modest 2.9 per cent growth in total goods exports. Over the full year, agri-exports expanded 6.4 per cent to $52 billion, even as overall merchandise exports remained largely flat. This divergence is not cyclical luck. It reflects how trade diplomacy — through FTAs and CEPAs — is now reshaping India’s export geography in ways that reach all the way to the farmgate.

Trade Diplomacy in 2025: Growth with Balance, Not Exposure

The broader trade backdrop makes this resilience more striking. Between November 2024 and November 2025, India’s total exports expanded from $64.05 billion to $73.99 billion, a robust 15.5 per cent year-on-year increase. Imports, meanwhile, remained broadly stable, compressing the trade deficit by over 61 per cent.

This is not the signature of a commodity upswing. It reflects a structural realignment in India’s trade architecture, where diversification, diplomacy, and domestic competitiveness reforms are converging. Merchandise exports reached $38.13 billion in November 2025, growing 19.4 per cent, while services exports rose 11.7 per cent to $35.86 billion — a near-even split that reduces vulnerability to sector-specific shocks.

For agriculture, this balance matters. Farm exports are increasingly embedded within wider value-added ecosystems — food processing, marine products, animal feed, nutraceuticals, agro-chemicals, and bio-inputs. India is exporting not just crops, but integrated food and bio-economy systems. Agriculture, once treated as a peripheral trade category, is quietly becoming export infrastructure.

Oman CEPA and the Rewiring of the Gulf Food Corridor

One of the key drivers of this shift has been India’s Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement with Oman. Signed as Gulf food security strategies accelerated post-pandemic and post-Ukraine, Oman CEPA has transformed a bilateral agreement into a regional supply-chain lever.

Oman already sources over 10 per cent of its agricultural imports from India. Under CEPA, Indian exports gain zero-duty access on over 98 per cent of Oman’s tariff lines, covering nearly the entire export value basket. The result is not just easier access to a destination market, but privileged entry into a logistics and re-export hub linking West Asia, East Africa, and parts of Central Asia.

” Before last week’s Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India and Oman, most Indian agri‑food exports were already duty‑free or faced a modest 5 percent tariff, except alcoholic beverages at 100 percent. In 2024, Oman accounted for about 1 percent of India’s exports, yet India dominated the market, supplying 50–70 percent of rice, bovine meat, onions, eggs, raw sugar, and bananas, with these imports growing 12–13 percent annually between 2018 and 2023. Even under the 5 percent tariff, exports rose robustly — bovine meat 17 percent, fresh eggs 12 percent, sweet biscuits 60 percent, animal feed 56 percent, and sauces and condiments 24 percent. CEPA now eliminates the remaining tariffs, boosting price competitiveness, formalising market access, reducing policy uncertainty, and strengthening India’s position as a reliable and preferred agri‑food supplier in Oman. “— Pushan Sharma, Director, Crisil Intelligence

The impact is visible on the ground. Buffalo meat exports — now poised to surpass their decade-old $4.8 billion record — have benefited from faster clearances and tighter Gulf cold-chain integration. Fruits and vegetables, both fresh and processed, have expanded steadily as Oman-linked logistics reduce spoilage and transaction risk. Non-basmati rice, on track to exceed $6.5 billion following the lifting of domestic curbs, has found renewed momentum through Gulf redistribution channels.

In effect, Oman CEPA has functioned as a shock absorber. As Western markets turned volatile or tariff-heavy, Indian exporters redirected volumes toward demand-secure corridors, without waiting for price cycles to turn.

UK CETA and the Quiet Shift from Volume to Value

If Oman CEPA reshaped volumes, India’s Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with the United Kingdom is beginning to reshape value. By granting duty-free access to 99 per cent of Indian exports, CETA has opened a preferential window for higher-margin agri and allied products — marine exports, processed foods, beverages, specialty ingredients, and nutraceutical inputs.

This mattered enormously in 2025. Marine exports grew 17.4 per cent between April and September, even as shipments to the U.S. faced tariffs as high as 58 per cent. While exporters diversified into Asia and the EU, the UK’s tariff-free access under CETA strengthened margins and reduced dependence on a single high-risk market. Marine exports rose from $3.4 billion to $4 billion in six months and remain on track to challenge the historic $8.1 billion peak.

Coffee exports tell a parallel story. With global stocks at a 25-year low, India’s coffee exports climbed from $739 million in 2019–20 to $1.8 billion in 2024–25 and are likely to cross $2 billion this year. While prices dominate the headline, preferential access to premium markets like the UK reinforces India’s shift from bulk exports toward origin-linked, specialty positioning.

CETA’s importance extends beyond goods. Mobility provisions and the Double Contribution Convention reduce costs for Indian professionals and firms, indirectly strengthening agri-linked services — quality testing, traceability, logistics, and compliance — that underpin modern food exports.

FTAs Against the Headwinds of Prices and Tariffs

This resilience becomes even sharper against the macro backdrop of 2025. After peaking at 160.2 in 2022, the FAO Food Price Index — a broad gauge of global food commodity prices — had eased to 126.4 by October 2025, reflecting softer prices for staples such as cereals and sugar, both at multi-year lows. The cereals sub-index, at 103.6, was the lowest since 2020, while sugar prices also hit troughs unseen for years. Traditionally, weak global prices squeeze export earnings for suppliers like India, as lower unit prices translate directly into lower export revenues.

At the same time, punitive tariffs imposed by the United States — including 26.9 per cent on marine products, roughly 45 per cent on spices, and 17.8 per cent on basmati rice — threatened traditional Indian export categories, depressing shipments and eroding competitiveness in a key premium market. Under such conditions, the default outcome would have been contraction: lower global prices combined with tariff barriers would normally reduce export volumes and revenues. Yet Indian agricultural exports continued to expand. The explanation lies in FTA-enabled elasticity — a structural cushion that absorbed and redirected shocks rather than leaving exporters exposed.

How FTAs Changed the Dynamic

Geographic Risk Spreading via Oman CEPA:

The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement with Oman — signed and operationalized in 2025 — granted virtually duty-free access on nearly all agricultural tariff lines. Beyond direct exports to Oman, the agreement effectively linked Indian producers into the broader Gulf food corridor. Oman serves as both a consumption market and a logistics and re-export hub into West Asia and East Africa, helping Indian exporters redirect volumes away from tariff-hit destinations like the U.S. and into high-growth regional demand centers.

Value Capture through UK CETA:

The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement with the United Kingdom — granting duty-free access on 99 per cent of India’s exports — strengthened margins in value-added segments even as raw commodity prices waned. Marine products, coffee, processed foods, and specialty agricultural inputs benefited from preferential access to a high-income, regulatory-stable market. The tariff advantage reduced market entry costs and compliance uncertainty, enabling exporters to capture greater revenue share in premium categories.

Diversification Beyond Single Markets:

A key element of FTA-enabled elasticity is the ability to diversify destinations. With tariff barriers rising in one market, Indian exporters leaned harder into demand from the Gulf, Europe, Africa, and Southeast Asia — markets where trade agreements or preferential arrangements provided reliable access. This portfolio approach mitigated overdependence on any single destination’s policy environment.

India–Israel FTA: A Forward-Looking Dimension

In November 2025, India and Israel signed the Terms of Reference for an FTA, signaling an ambitious next phase in trade diplomacy. While still under negotiation, the proposed pact is expected to deepen cooperation across high-value sectors including fintech, agri-tech, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, machine learning, pharmaceuticals, space, and defence. For agriculture, this opens new channels in precision agri-tech, post-harvest solutions, and bio-inputs, potentially enhancing both productivity and the high-value export profile of Indian farm produce.

Complementary Domestic Policies:

FTA benefits are reinforced by domestic reforms: faster GST refunds, RoDTEP disbursements, logistics upgrades under PM GatiShakti, and district-level export hubs. These measures reduce costs, improve compliance with international standards, and facilitate the move from primary commodities to processed, branded, and differentiated agricultural products, thereby cushioning export revenues even when global prices are weak.

In sum, while soft global prices and punitive U.S. tariffs posed a formidable dual challenge in 2025, India’s expanding network of FTAs — now including Oman, the UK, and the soon-to-be Israel FTA — created elastic export pathways. These agreements enabled geographic and product diversification, reduced dependency on tariff-exposed markets, and enhanced value capture. India’s agriculture sector did not just maintain volumes; it rewired the underlying geography and value composition of farm exports, ensuring resilience and strategic leverage in a volatile global environment.

Imports Tell the Other Half of the Story

Trade diplomacy can open corridors, but it cannot substitute for domestic competitiveness. In 2025, India’s agricultural imports rose 5.9 per cent in April–September, underscoring persistent structural vulnerabilities. The surge was dominated by vegetable oils, which are once again approaching the $20.8 billion record of 2022–23. Rising imports of soybean, palm, and sunflower oils reflect not only strong domestic demand but also the stubborn gap between consumption and domestic oilseed production — a gap that policy interventions like oilseed MSP adjustments and expansion schemes have struggled to close.

India also turned a net importer of raw cotton, with imports expected to exceed $1.5 billion in 2025. This reversal signals stagnating yields, suboptimal adoption of modern seed and irrigation technologies, and persistent post-harvest losses. Even as India remains a global textile hub, reliance on imported cotton highlights that export growth in high-value segments is ultimately contingent on domestic productivity and input efficiency.

Similarly, pulses, certain edible oils, and specialty crops remain dependent on imports for quality and volume, exposing the domestic market to global price swings and supply shocks. For instance, in early 2025, global soybean prices rose nearly 12 per cent due to South American droughts, immediately pushing up India’s import bill. Even as FTAs provide preferential access and new export channels, the country’s import dependency illustrates that external market opportunities alone cannot guarantee trade resilience.

The policy lesson is sobering but clear: FTAs can redirect flows, expand demand, and open premium markets — but domestic competitiveness determines what ultimately moves through those corridors. Trade agreements create infrastructure for market access; productivity, yield quality, post-harvest handling, and processing capabilities determine the volume and value that can traverse them.

In effect, imports act as a mirror to exports. While export FTAs shield farmers and processors from volatility and open high-value corridors, import trends reveal where domestic production is lagging — whether in oilseeds, cotton, pulses, or niche horticulture. Closing these gaps through technology adoption, farm-level innovation, and processing efficiency is essential to converting FTA potential into tangible economic gains.

Ultimately, India’s agricultural trade story in 2025 is two-sided: Outward-facing trade diplomacy and inward-facing productivity imperatives must work in tandem. Without strengthening the domestic base, corridors built by FTAs risk carrying only partial loads, leaving farmers and exporters exposed to both foreign tariffs and domestic supply bottlenecks.

Why 2025 Marks a Turning Point

What distinguishes 2025 is not just export growth, but the speed and sophistication of adjustment. Indian agriculture is no longer reacting passively to global shocks. Through a widening FTA web — spanning Oman, the UK, UAE, Australia, EFTA, and ongoing negotiations with the EU, GCC, and others — exporters are learning to arbitrage markets, hedge tariffs, and climb the value ladder.

This is reinforced by domestic reforms: faster GST refunds, RoDTEP disbursements, logistics upgrades under PM GatiShakti, and district-level export hubs that matter disproportionately for perishables and processed foods.

In a fragmented global economy, where manufacturing supply chains can be rerouted but food shortages destabilise governments, India’s ability to export food reliably across multiple corridors carries geopolitical weight. Through FTAs, India is not merely expanding agri-exports. It is locking in demand, de-risking volatility, and positioning its farmers as stakeholders in global food security.

By 2025, agriculture is no longer an adjunct to India’s trade diplomacy. It is one of its most effective instruments.

— Suchetana Choudhury (suchetana.choudhuri@agrospectrumindia.com)