The report comprehensively explores the current state of the country’s edible oil sector and its future potential.
The report titled “Pathways and Strategies for Accelerating Growth in Edible Oils Towards the Goal of Atmanirbharta” was released by Suman Bery, Vice-Chairman, in the presence of Prof. Ramesh Chand, Member, NITI Aayog, along with senior officials from the Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare (MoA&FW), ICAR institutes, and industry players yesterday. The report was presented by Dr Neelam Patel, Senior Advisor (Agriculture), NITI Aayog.
The report highlights that over the past decades, per capita consumption of edible oil in the country has seen a dramatic rise, reaching 19.7 kg/year. This surge in demand has significantly outpaced domestic production, leading to a heavy reliance on imports to meet both domestic and industrial needs. In 2022-23, India imported 16.5 million tonnes (MT) of edible oils, with domestic production fulfilling only 40-45 per cent of the country’s requirements. This situation presents a substantial challenge to the country’s goal of achieving self-sufficiency in edible oils.
The report comprehensively explores the current state of the country’s edible oil sector and its future potential. It presents a detailed roadmap to address existing challenges, focusing on bridging the demand-supply gap and developing new approaches to attain self-sufficiency. Under a Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, the national supply of edible oil is projected to increase to 16 MT by 2030 and 26.7 MT by 2047.
The report considers three distinct approaches for demand forecasting to gain a multifaceted understanding of future edible oil needs: (i) ‘Static/Household Approach’ utilizing population projections and baseline per capita consumption data, assuming a short-term static pattern in consumption behavior; (ii) ‘Normative Approach’ based on the recommended healthy intake levels established by the ICMR-National Institute of Nutrition (ICMR-NIN); and (iii) ‘Behavioristic Approach’ recognizing the potential for behavioral shifts in food consumption patterns due to evolving lifestyles and dietary habits driven by increasing income levels and price fluctuations under two scenarios: in Scenario I, where consumption is capped at 25.3 kg per capita (the average of developed countries), the demand-supply gap is projected to be 22.3 MT by 2030 and 15.20 MT by 2047. In Scenario II, which considers a higher consumption level of 40.3 kg per capita (comparable to the USA), the gap widens to 29.5 MT by 2030 and 40 MT by 2047. In the BAU situation, the country’s edible oil demand will reach Scenario-I by 2028 and Scenario-II by 2038 where under the high-income growth circumstance, assuming an estimated 8 per cent annual growth, The country’s edible oil demand is expected to Scenario-I as early as 2025, a three-year advancement compared to the BAU situation and Scenario-II by 2031, seven years earlier than anticipated in the BAU situation, showcasing even higher demand due to accelerated economic growth.
