Insights from the Monthly Dashboard: Grapes by CRISIL, with export intelligence inputs from APEDA

The global table grape economy is entering a phase of measured expansion, shaped by acreage growth in key producers, weather-linked volatility in output, and a sharp acceleration in trade flows toward Asia and emerging markets.

Acreage: Expansion Led by Asia and the Americas

Countries represented in the chart account for over 60 per cent of global table grape acreage. For MY25P, global acreage is projected to rise 3–4 per cent year-on-year, driven primarily by China, the United States, and India, while most other producing nations are expected to remain stable or post marginal gains.

India recorded record-high acreage in MY24, and planted area is estimated to have expanded further in MY25, supported by favourable climatic conditions and strong farmgate price realisation. In contrast, the US faced a sharp production setback in MY24, largely due to Hurricane Hilary, which severely disrupted California’s harvest.

Production: Marginal Growth, Divergent Regional Trends

The countries in the chart together contribute nearly 90 per cent of global table grape production, which is expected to rise modestly by 0–1 per cent in MY25P.

Growth will be concentrated in China and Egypt, which together account for roughly 60 per cent of global output and are expected to register 1–5 per cent year-on-year growth. Countries holding around 14 per cent of global share are likely to remain stable, while producers accounting for nearly 12 per cent of global output are projected to see a steep 16–20 per cent decline, reflecting weather stress and disease pressure.

India’s grape production is expected to decline in MY25P, owing to unfavourable weather conditions and mildew infestation, particularly in Karnataka and Maharashtra. By contrast, US production is forecast to rebound, supported by normalising yields in California—which contributes nearly 90 per cent of US output. Improved cluster setting, better berry size, and reduced disease incidence compared to the heat- and storm-affected MY24 season are driving the recovery outlook.

Exports: Strong Rebound Led by the Americas and Central Asia

Countries shown in the chart collectively account for about 88 per cent of global table grape exports. For MY25P, global exports are projected to rise by around 10% year-on-year, powered by sharp increases from the US, Uzbekistan, China, and Peru, with export growth for these countries estimated at 17–34 per cent.

This surge is being underpinned by rising import demand from Russia, Southeast Asia, Mexico, and Bangladesh. Peru’s momentum stands out: table grape shipments are projected to reach ~6.2 lakh metric tonnes in MY26P, generating nearly $ 1.9 billion in export revenue. Expanding acreage and strong early-season dispatches are set to strengthen Peru’s position in global supply, adding upward pressure on export availability in the coming marketing year.

Imports: Asia Emerges as the Demand Engine

The countries in the chart represent roughly 80 per cent of global table grape imports. Between MY20 and MY25, grape imports grew at a 7–10 per cent CAGR across Southeast Asia (Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia), 16 per cent in Bangladesh, 7 per cent in Russia, and 5 per cent in the EU.

Southeast Asia—already a net importer accounting for 4 per cent of global fresh produce imports—has seen fruit imports grow at nearly 20 per cent annually over the past three years, with grapes among the top imported categories. In Vietnam, fruit imports reached $ 1.91 billion in the first nine months of 2025, up 15.1 per cent year-on-year, with premium US supplies surging nearly 47 per cent, signaling further upside for grape imports.

Thailand: A Missed Opportunity for India—for Now

China dominates Thailand’s grape import market, supplying about 89 per cent of volumes, driven by low-cost bulk availability and year-round supply. Australia follows as a premium supplier, especially in the seedless grape segment.

India’s presence remains limited at around 2 per cent, despite a strong cost advantage—with average unit prices near $ 2,261/MT, compared with $ 3,080/MT for Australian grapes. Thailand’s imports—dominated by Shine Muscat, Red Globe, Thompson, and Crimson Seedless—are well aligned with Indian varieties such as Thompson, Sonaka, and Flame Seedless.

Australia’s competitive edge lies in uniform berry size, higher brix levels, and longer shelf firmness. Addressing these quality parameters, alongside better post-harvest handling, could materially improve India’s competitiveness.

Strategic Outlook

Leveraging the ASEAN–India FTA, India has a clear pathway to scale table grape exports by ensuring consistent supply, strengthening cold-chain and post-harvest systems, and investing in strategic branding. Positioning Indian grapes as a value-driven alternative to Australian produce—particularly in modern retail and online channels—and expanding into dried and processed grape formats could enable year-round market presence and a stronger foothold in Southeast Asia.

Source: Monthly Dashboard – Grapes by CRISIL; Export and varietal insights supported by APEDA.