Insights based on the Monthly Dashboard-Orange by APEDA & CRISIL

The global orange market is entering a structurally tighter phase in MY25, marked by climate disruptions, disease-led production declines, and shifting trade dynamics, even as seasonal staggering across hemispheres continues to ensure year-round availability, according to CRISIL’s Monthly Dashboard: Orange.

Orange production remains geographically well distributed, with Northern Hemisphere producers—including the EU, the US, India, Egypt, Turkey, and Morocco—harvesting primarily between October and April, while Southern Hemisphere suppliers such as Brazil and South Africa dominate supply from May to September. This natural seasonal staggering creates predictable trade windows, with exporters filling off-season gaps in importing markets. Prices typically peak during lean months between July and October and soften during peak harvest periods from November to March.

Acreage Trends: Marginal Global Growth Masks Sharp Regional Divergence

The countries covered in CRISIL’s dashboard account for roughly 80 per cent of global orange acreage, and in MY25, global acreage is projected to increase marginally by 1 per cent year-on-year. However, this headline stability conceals significant regional divergence. Most producing countries have maintained or slightly expanded planted area, while the US stands out as a notable exception, recording a sharp 5 per cent decline in acreage.

The US orange sector continues to face structural decline, with production falling by 11 per cent between MY20 and MY25, driven by citrus greening disease, repeated hurricane damage, and sustained reductions in Florida acreage. Rising labour and input costs have further pressured grower economics, resulting in one of the lowest output levels in decades. This contraction has pushed domestic prices higher and increased the US’s dependence on imports.

Production Outlook: Global Output Softens Despite Growth Pockets

The countries represented in the dashboard account for approximately 92 per cent of global orange production. For MY25 (provisional), global orange production is expected to decline marginally by 2 per cent year-on-year. This is largely attributed to sharp output declines in Turkey, Egypt, and the US, which together account for about 12 per cent of global production.

In contrast, Morocco and Brazil are emerging as growth bright spots, with production expected to rise by 16 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively. In the European Union, however, Spain’s orange production is forecast to decline by 5–6 per cent, reflecting prolonged drought conditions and reduced irrigation allocations in key growing regions such as Andalucia and Valencia.

Mexico’s citrus sector is expected to grow by around 4 per cent in MY25, though orange-specific gains remain modest. Planted area is projected to expand by roughly 1 per cent, while fresh orange production is expected to increase by only 2 per cent, constrained by drought, high temperatures, and erratic rainfall.

India’s orange production is also anticipated to decline in MY25, driven by yield pressures in major producing states including Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Punjab. Punjab is facing reduced yields due to poor flowering linked to low sub-surface water levels, while Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh are experiencing elevated pest pressure.

Trade Flows: Export Momentum Peaks, Then Moderates

The countries featured in the CRISIL dashboard collectively account for nearly 97 per cent of global orange exports. In MY24, global orange exports grew robustly by 12 per cent, driven by sharp increases from Egypt (up 26 per cent), Turkey (up 21 per cent), and China (up 50 per cent), supported by favourable harvests and strong international demand.

However, in MY25 (provisional), global orange exports are expected to decline by 6–7 per cent, primarily due to reduced shipments from Egypt and Argentina. This decline is expected to be partially offset by stronger export performance from the EU, China, and South Africa, preventing a steeper contraction.

South Africa stands out in MY25, recording a record packed-export season of 203 million 15-kg cartons, a 22% year-on-year increase. Despite trade policy uncertainties, maturing orchards and sustained global demand have supported strong export volumes, suggesting that South Africa’s production and exports are likely to remain marginally higher year-on-year in the near term.

Import Demand: Mixed Signals Across Major Markets

The countries represented in the dashboard account for approximately 80 per cent of global orange imports, with global import volumes expected to rise modestly by 2–3 per cent year-on-year. In Russia, imports are projected to increase due to reduced domestic production and rising consumer demand for citrus.

In contrast, EU orange imports weakened at the start of the 2025–26 season, falling sharply to 113,146 tonnes in October 2025, compared to 166,825 tonnes in the same month last year—a 32 per cent year-on-year decline. This early-season slowdown signals softer demand and is likely to prompt exporters to redirect volumes to alternative markets, intensifying global competition.

Russian importers are also facing a shortage of the large-sized oranges preferred by consumers. Although 54 per cent of Russia’s imports originate from Egypt, exporters report limited availability of bigger fruit, creating a size mismatch that could force Russian buyers to pay premiums or diversify sourcing away from Egypt.

Price Dynamics: Diverging Signals Across Markets

Orange prices have shown divergent trends across major producing and importing regions. US export prices rose month-on-month in October 2025 and are expected to continue rising in the coming quarter due to reduced domestic production and firm demand. Turkey’s prices surged sharply in October, reflecting production declines and tight exportable supply, with further increases expected.

In contrast, China’s prices are expected to soften in the upcoming quarter as full-fledged arrivals of new crops enter the market, while export demand is likely to cap any sharp declines. South African prices rose marginally in October 2025, but are forecast to stabilise as strong export demand is balanced by a bountiful harvest.

Import prices have remained volatile. Between July 2024 and July 2025, import prices increased by 5–22 per cent in markets such as Germany, Canada, the UK, and Ukraine, while the US recorded a 13–14 per cent decline. In October 2025, import prices rose across most major markets except Germany and the US, largely because South Africa—a key supplier—was entering its lean production phase.

Juice Market: Sharp Correction After Record Highs

In contrast to fresh orange prices, orange juice prices collapsed by over 50 per cent in early 2025, following record highs in late 2024. The sharp correction was driven by weak consumer demand in response to elevated prices, compounded by poor juice quality from the 2024 harvest. Lower sugar and acid content, along with elevated limonin levels, resulted in bitter-tasting juice, particularly affecting the US and UK markets.

Outlook

CRISIL’s Monthly Orange Dashboard suggests that while global orange supply remains seasonally balanced, structural risks—from climate stress and disease to shifting trade flows—are tightening the market’s underlying fundamentals. With production growth increasingly concentrated in a few origins and demand patterns becoming more fragmented, price volatility is likely to remain a defining feature of the global orange economy in the near term.