India is staring at a potentially softer monsoon in 2026, an early signal that could ripple across farm output, rural demand, and food inflation in the months ahead.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its first-stage long-range forecast, has projected southwest monsoon rainfall at 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), placing the season in the “below normal” category. The estimate carries a model error of ±5 per cent, but probability distributions are tilted toward weaker rainfall outcomes.

With the LPA benchmark fixed at 87 cm (1971–2020 average), the forecast suggests a season where downside risks outweigh upside surprises—particularly for rain-fed agriculture.

Climate Signals Flash Caution

The broader climate backdrop is turning less supportive. Weak La Niña–like conditions are fading, with the Pacific moving toward neutrality and potentially into El Niño territory during the monsoon months—a shift typically associated with suppressed rainfall over India.

Complicating the picture is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), currently neutral but expected to turn positive later in the season. While a positive IOD can offset some El Niño impact, the lag effect means early monsoon performance could remain vulnerable.

Uneven Rainfall, Uneven Risk

The spatial outlook points to below-normal rainfall across large parts of the country, with limited relief expected in select pockets of the Northeast, Northwest, and southern peninsula.

Says M.K. Dhanuka, Chairman, Dhanuka Agritech Limited , “At present, it is a lean season for the agrochemical industry. Nearly 80 per cent of raw materials are available, although prices remain elevated. However, major consumption begins with the onset of the monsoon and accelerates during the Kharif season. With the IMD forecasting a below-normal monsoon at 92 per cent of the Long Period Average, planning becomes more critical. For key crops like paddy, cotton, pulses, and oilseeds, the distribution and timing of rainfall will be critical. Rainfall variability could influence sowing decisions and regional demand for crop protection products. While the current supply situation is manageable, continued pressure on raw material costs and logistics requires careful inventory planning to ensure timely availability during peak demand months”

For agriculture, this unevenness matters as much as the aggregate number.

India’s rain-fed regions, which account for a significant share of pulses, oilseeds, and coarse cereals, are particularly exposed. A weak or poorly distributed monsoon can disrupt sowing windows, reduce acreage, and compress yields.

Early Stress Signals for Agriculture

The implications for the farm economy are immediate:

Kharif Crop Strategy: Farmers may shift toward less water-intensive crops or delay planting decisions, especially in central and peninsular India.

Pulses and Oilseeds at Risk: These crops, already prone to volatility, could see tighter supplies, amplifying price risks.

Input Demand Shift: Expect increased traction for drought-resilient seeds, micro-irrigation, and biological crop protection solutions.

Rural Demand Impact: Lower farm incomes in a weak monsoon scenario could weigh on consumption cycles in rural markets.

The slightly below-normal snow cover across Eurasia—a variable historically inversely linked to monsoon strength—adds another layer of caution to the outlook.

Markets and Policy on Alert

A below-normal monsoon has consequences beyond agriculture. Food inflation, particularly in pulses and edible oils, could resurface as a macro concern. Government response may hinge on buffer stock management, import policies, and contingency planning for rainfall-deficit regions.

For agribusinesses, the season could accelerate structural shifts already underway—toward climate-smart inputs, diversified cropping systems, and risk-managed farming practices.

The Waiting Game

The IMD will update its forecast in late May with more granular regional projections, followed by monthly outlooks through the monsoon season.

Until then, the message from the first forecast is unambiguous: India’s 2026 monsoon may underperform, and the agriculture sector is entering the season with elevated risk—and heightened dependence on how climate signals evolve in the weeks ahead.