Non-veg thali becomes 3 per cent cheaper on-year amid lower broiler, onion, potato and pulse prices, while vegetable oil and LPG costs remain firm

The cost of preparing a home-cooked vegetarian thali in India remained broadly stable in February 2026, while the non-vegetarian thali became 3 per cent cheaper year-on-year, according to CRISIL’s monthly indicator that tracks the cost of a typical household meal across north, south, east and west India.

The stability in the vegetarian thali cost came despite a decline in prices of staples such as onion, potato and pulses, as a sharp surge in tomato prices offset the savings. Tomato prices rose 43 per cent year-on-year to Rs 33 per kg, driven by lower mandi arrivals between November 2025 and January 2026 following delayed transplantation that affected crop yields and tightened supplies.

In contrast, onion prices fell 24 per cent year-on-year due to higher arrivals from the late kharif crop, while weak exports and limited shelf life forced quicker disposal in domestic markets. Potato prices declined 13 per cent as the crop entered its peak harvest phase, coinciding with the continued liquidation of cold storage stocks from the previous rabi season. Pulse prices dropped 9 per cent, supported by higher opening inventories, with tur stocks estimated to be 20 per cent higher for the July–June marketing year and Bengal gram stocks about 10 per cent higher for the January–December marketing cycle.

However, some input costs continued to exert upward pressure. Vegetable oil prices rose 4 per cent year-on-year due to tighter global soybean oil supplies, while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cylinder prices increased 6 per cent, limiting a larger decline in overall meal costs.

The non-vegetarian thali became 3 per cent cheaper on-year, largely due to an estimated 7 per cent decline in broiler prices, which account for nearly half the total cost of the meal. Lower prices of onions, potatoes and pulses also contributed to the decline, although higher tomato prices moderated the overall reduction.

On a month-on-month basis, the cost of both meal plates eased in February. The vegetarian thali declined 5 per cent, while the non-vegetarian thali fell 1 per cent, supported by higher vegetable arrivals. Tomato prices dropped 29 per cent month-on-month, while potato and onion prices declined 6 per cent and 4 per cent, respectively.

The fall in the non-vegetarian thali was relatively modest as broiler prices rose about 2 per cent on-month, driven by higher feed costs and firm seasonal demand.

Commenting on the trend, Pushan Sharma, Director, CRISIL Intelligence, said: “The cost of a vegetarian thali remained stable on-year in February as lower onion, potato and pulse prices offset a sharp rise in tomato prices. Tomato prices surged due to delayed transplantation, which impacted crop development and yields. This was reflected in a 32 per cent year-on-year decline in crop arrivals in mandis between November 2025 and January 2026.”

He added that vegetable prices are expected to soften in the near term. “Tomato prices will likely remain higher on-year until mid-April and may firm up again as seasonal arrivals tighten and the market transitions between crop cycles. Potato prices are expected to remain subdued through March–April during the peak arrival season, while onion prices may face pressure over the next two to three months unless exports pick up meaningfully,” Sharma said.

He also flagged potential external trade risks. “Uncertainties in the Middle East and possible trade disruptions may soften demand for basmati rice, exerting downward pressure on prices. Iran accounts for nearly 18 per cent of India’s basmati rice exports, while other Middle Eastern countries account for 55–60 per cent. Exporters are therefore cautious about potential logistical challenges,” he noted, adding that non-basmati rice exports to African markets are unlikely to be affected significantly.

CRISIL’s thali cost indicator, which includes cereals, pulses, vegetables, edible oils, broiler meat and cooking gas, serves as a proxy for the changing cost of household meals and its impact on consumer expenditure, highlighting how fluctuations in agricultural commodity prices directly influence the common man’s monthly food budget.