Global animal protein production is set to enter a more constrained phase in 2026, with overall growth continuing to decelerate and output from key terrestrial proteins—beef and pork—expected to decline, according to the Global Animal Protein Outlook 2026 released by RaboResearch, Rabobank’s research arm.

Authored by Eva Gocsik, Global Sector Strategist for Animal Protein and Nan-Dirk Mulder, Senior Global Specialist for Animal Protein, the report identifies 2026 as a structural inflection point. For the first time in six years, global production of land-based animal proteins is projected to contract, even as seafood and poultry remain the primary drivers of incremental growth.

Margins under pressure despite stable feed costs

While feed costs are expected to remain broadly stable, the outlook for producers and processors is increasingly challenged by tighter protein supplies, higher trade and logistics costs, disease-related disruptions, and rising volatility. RaboResearch notes that margins across the animal protein value chain are likely to remain under pressure as processors struggle with uneven capacity utilization and shifting trade flows influenced by tariffs and protectionist policies.

In both advanced and emerging markets, the report emphasizes that efficiency and productivity gains at the farm and processing level will be critical to maintaining competitiveness.

Consumers trade down as growth slows

With global GDP growth forecast to moderate in 2026, consumer behaviour is expected to remain highly price-sensitive. According to RaboResearch, price dynamics will vary across protein categories, prompting some consumers to trade down within categories or switch between proteins. However, substitution is not always seamless, as certain proteins—particularly premium cuts—do not function as direct alternatives.

This uneven demand response is likely to further complicate pricing strategies for producers and retailers alike.

Trade resilience amid geopolitical friction

Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, animal protein trade has demonstrated notable resilience. Strategic front-loading of shipments has helped maintain volumes amid tariff uncertainty, while shifting trade policies continue to reshape global flows. RaboResearch suggests that new or evolving trade agreements could partially offset these disruptions, although supply-demand imbalances are expected to persist through 2026.

Disease risk reshapes production economics

Animal disease remains one of the most disruptive forces in the sector. Beyond recurring threats such as African swine fever and avian influenza, the report flags emerging risks including New World screwworm, bluetongue, foot-and-mouth disease, and lumpy skin disease.

These outbreaks have curtailed productivity, raised costs, and triggered trade restrictions, accelerating the adoption of enhanced biosecurity measures. However, RaboResearch cautions that disease management solutions are complex to implement, requiring careful coordination across supply chains, regulatory systems, and international trade frameworks.

Sustainability and regulation move from risk to strategy

In an increasingly uncertain operating environment, sustainability-related risks—particularly those linked to climate change and biodiversity loss—are becoming central to business strategy. Regulatory momentum, including the expansion of climate-related financial disclosure requirements, is pushing animal protein companies to integrate environmental risk more deeply into decision-making.

RaboResearch underscores that holistic risk management is no longer optional, as sustainability factors can either amplify or mitigate operational and financial exposure.

Technology adoption lags, but AI offers selective promise

Technology is expected to play a growing role in helping animal protein companies manage operational risk while advancing sustainability objectives. However, investment across the sector remains subdued. While investor enthusiasm around artificial intelligence (AI) may eventually benefit livestock producers and processors, the report notes that impact will depend on practical, targeted integration into existing workflows, rather than wholesale digital transformation.

Strategic reset for 2026

To navigate the evolving landscape, RaboResearch advises animal protein companies to pursue portfolio diversification, selective consolidation, and closer alignment with changing consumer preferences. In a slower-growth, higher-risk environment, strategic discipline—rather than scale alone—will define resilience.

Source: Global Animal Protein Outlook 2026, RaboResearch, Rabobank.