In a landmark move that positions India at the global forefront of agricultural innovation, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare (MoAFW) has rolled out the country’s first large-scale AI-driven weather forecasting initiative, delivering customized monsoon predictions to nearly 3.8 crore farmers across 13 states. The program, launched during the 2025 Kharif season, is the first of its kind to target farmers directly with localized, AI-based forecasts up to four weeks ahead of rainfall — a breakthrough that promises to transform crop planning and risk management for millions.

For a nation where Kharif farming remains the primary source of income for millions of rural households, early access to accurate weather information is a game-changer. Using a blend of cutting-edge models, including Google’s Neural GCM and ECMWF’s Artificial Intelligence Forecasting Systems (AIFS), the program delivered early and actionable insights on the arrival and progress of the monsoon. This season, the AI models correctly predicted a critical 20-day pause in monsoon progression, enabling timely advisories and weekly updates that helped farmers adjust sowing schedules and safeguard yields.

The initiative marks a turning point in the application of artificial intelligence to public policy and rural livelihoods. Unlike conventional weather bulletins, the forecasts were tailored for farmers’ decision-making needs and disseminated through the government’s m-Kisan SMS platform, ensuring last-mile delivery even in remote villages. By combining advanced climate models with behavioral insights from fieldwork conducted in partnership with Development Innovation Lab – India and Precision Development, the Ministry ensured that messages were simple, actionable, and trusted by the farming community.

India’s program is also significant from a global perspective. Since 2022, AI has revolutionized weather prediction, enabling climate models to provide earlier and more reliable forecasts of complex phenomena such as the South Asian monsoon. By being the first government to scale such technology for direct farmer benefit, India has created a template for climate adaptation that other agrarian economies can emulate.

Beyond immediate benefits, the program opens doors for long-term resilience in agriculture. AI-powered forecasts can help optimize input use, improve water management, and reduce losses from climate variability — crucial in a country where rainfed agriculture accounts for nearly 60 per cent of total sown area. With plans to expand coverage and refine accuracy further, the initiative is poised to integrate seamlessly with digital agriculture platforms, crop insurance schemes, and climate-smart farming policies.

By connecting advanced AI technology with the needs of millions of farmers, India has signaled its intent to lead in climate-resilient agriculture and deliver inclusive growth powered by innovation. The 2025 initiative stands not just as a technology milestone, but as a blueprint for how emerging economies can future-proof their food systems in an era of climate volatility.