Global crop production growth will mainly be driven by continued progress in plant breeding and a transition to more intensive production systems.
Global agricultural and food production are projected to continue to increase over the next ten years, but at a slower pace of growth than the previous decade due to demographic trends, according to a report released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032 is the key global reference for medium-term prospects for agricultural commodity markets. While uncertainty has risen due to geopolitical tensions, adverse climate trends, animal and plant diseases and increased price volatility for key agricultural inputs, global production of crops, livestock products and fish are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.1 percent during the period, half the pace recorded in the decade ending in 2015. Total food consumption is expected to rise by 1.3 percent per annum to 2032, indicating an increase in the share of agricultural commodities used as food.
These projections assume a fast recovery from recent inflationary pressures, normal weather conditions, no major policy changes and on-trend evolution in consumer preferences. The possibility that inflationary pressures remain persistent poses downside risks to global food demand and production.
Global crop production growth will mainly be driven by continued progress in plant breeding and a transition to more intensive production systems. Yield improvements are projected to account for 79 percent of global crop production growth, cropland expansion for 15 percent, and higher cropping intensity for 6 percent over the Outlook period.
“The broad trends outlined in this report are heading in the right direction, but need to be accelerated,” FAO Director-General QU Dongyu said. “Promoting a faster shift to sustainable agrifood systems will bring many benefits and help usher in better lives for all, leaving no one behind.”
