Friday, 5 June 2026
Healthy reservoir levels and irrigation coverage expected to support early sowing, but below-normal monsoon, pest pressures and fertiliser constraints pose risks to yields
India’s 2026 kharif season is set to commence on a relatively stable note despite the emergence of El Niño conditions that are expected to influence monsoon behaviour and create production uncertainties across the agricultural sector, according to a Crisil analysis.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast southwest monsoon rainfall at 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), indicating a below-normal monsoon season. Historically, El Niño has been associated with weaker monsoons and heightened agricultural risks. Since 1950, seven of the sixteen El Niño years have resulted in below-normal rainfall and widespread drought conditions across India.
With nearly 70-80 per cent of the country’s annual rainfall occurring during the southwest monsoon season, rainfall performance during the June-September period remains a critical determinant of agricultural production, rural incomes and food security.
El Niño Raises Weather Uncertainty
Under normal climatic conditions, trade winds move warm surface waters across the Pacific Ocean towards Australia, supporting cloud formation and monsoon activity over the Indian subcontinent. During an El Niño event, these trade winds weaken or reverse, causing warmer sea surface temperatures to develop near the South American coast and disrupting rainfall patterns across Australia and India.
As of May 2026, climate indicators point to an evolving El Niño event that is expected to influence rainfall distribution across India during the kharif season.
The rainfall outlook suggests that a majority of agricultural regions may experience below-normal precipitation, while normal to above-normal rainfall probabilities are largely confined to parts of the western Himalayan region, select northeastern states and isolated pockets of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Odisha.
Strong Reservoir Levels Provide Initial Support
Despite concerns over rainfall deficits, favourable pre-sowing conditions are expected to support timely sowing and crop establishment. As of May 29, 2026, reservoir storage levels across India stood approximately 19 per cent above the normal level and around 1 per cent higher than the corresponding period last year.
The western region reported reservoir levels around 44 per cent above normal, followed by the northern region at 34 per cent, the central region at 20 per cent and the southern region at 6 per cent above normal. These healthy water reserves, combined with extensive irrigation infrastructure, are expected to cushion the impact of below-normal rainfall during the initial phase of the season.
Irrigation coverage remains substantial across key agricultural regions, estimated at approximately 76 per cent in central India, 65 per cent in northern India, 52 per cent in southern India and 48 per cent in western India. Although eastern India continues to report reservoir levels around 11 per cent below normal, recent rainfall has improved soil moisture conditions, enabling sowing activities to begin on a relatively stable footing.
Farmers Expected to Rebalance Crop Choices
Crisil expects farmers to make increasingly strategic cropping decisions during the 2026 kharif season, balancing rainfall expectations, profitability, procurement support and prevailing market dynamics.
Among cereals, paddy acreage is expected to increase in Punjab and Haryana, supported by assured procurement mechanisms, favourable price realisations and near-universal irrigation coverage. Bihar is also likely to witness higher paddy sowing due to relatively strong irrigation penetration and favourable planting conditions. In contrast, maize acreage is expected to decline across several states, including Punjab, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and parts of Karnataka, as farmers shift towards more remunerative alternatives such as soybean, pulses, cotton and chilli.
Pulse acreage is expected to expand significantly, supported by lower cultivation costs, lower water requirements and relatively stronger profitability. Within cash crops, cotton acreage may decline in Punjab, Gujarat and Maharashtra due to lower economic returns. However, Madhya Pradesh is expected to record increased cotton planting as farmers shift away from soybean cultivation. Jute acreage is also projected to expand in West Bengal.
Fruit cultivation, including banana and apple, is likely to witness acreage growth driven by stable consumer demand, while vegetable acreage may remain subdued owing to lower market prices and anticipated rainfall deficits. Spice crops, particularly chilli, are expected to record higher acreage after two consecutive years of contraction, supported by improved market prices.
Yield Risks Remain Elevated
While acreage is expected to remain broadly resilient, productivity faces three major challenges.
The period between July and September coincides with key reproductive and yield-forming stages for most kharif crops. While July primarily supports crop establishment and vegetative growth, August and September are crucial for flowering, fruit development, pod filling and boll formation.
Below-normal rainfall during these stages could significantly impact productivity across cereals, pulses, oilseeds and cash crops.
The eventual spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall will remain the single most important determinant of crop performance during the season.
Elevated temperatures coupled with uneven rainfall patterns are expected to intensify pest and disease pressures across several crops, including chilli, cotton, soybean, pulses and vegetables.
The resulting increase in crop protection requirements is expected to support demand for insecticides and other agrochemical products.
However, prolonged dry spells may also encourage some farmers to postpone or reduce pesticide applications in an effort to manage cultivation costs, creating uncertainty around crop protection demand patterns.
Input availability has emerged as another key concern.
The ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia have created uncertainties surrounding fertiliser supplies and pricing ahead of the kharif season.
As of April 27, 2026, India’s fertiliser inventories stood at:
Urea: 71.58 lakh metric tonnes (LMT)
Diammonium Phosphate (DAP): 22.35 LMT
Muriate of Potash (MOP): 12.46 LMT
Complex Fertilisers: 57.56 LMT
While current inventories appear adequate in the near term, projected demand during May-August is estimated at 120-125 LMT for urea and 30-35 LMT for DAP, suggesting potential supply tightness.
Global fertiliser markets have also witnessed sharp price increases due to rising costs of key raw materials such as sulphur, phosphoric acid and ammonia.
Recent international tenders indicate urea prices ranging between $935-959 per metric tonne and DAP prices between $930-935 per metric tonne, representing increases of approximately 123 per cent and 39 per cent, respectively, compared with pre-conflict levels.
Crisil notes that while current stocks may be sufficient for the next 2.5 to 3 months, supply disruptions could emerge during the critical mid-July to early August period. This would particularly affect nitrogen-intensive crops such as paddy, maize, cotton and sugarcane, while pulses and oilseeds are expected to remain comparatively less vulnerable.
Outlook: Resilient Start, But Vigilance Required
According to CRISIL, the 2026 kharif season begins with several supportive factors, including strong reservoir storage, adequate irrigation infrastructure and favourable pre-sowing conditions.
However, the evolving El Niño event introduces significant uncertainty regarding rainfall distribution, while rising temperatures could exacerbate pest outbreaks and disease incidence during critical crop growth stages.
At the same time, tighter fertiliser supplies and elevated input costs may create additional challenges for farmers.
Ultimately, the performance of the 2026 kharif season will hinge on two critical variables: the distribution of monsoon rainfall and the timely availability of key agricultural inputs. Together, these factors will determine crop productivity, farm incomes and overall agricultural output in the months ahead, according to Crisil.
