Kerala wholesale prices hover around Rs 20,000/quintal; sharp year-on-year decline signals persistent market weakness

Wholesale coffee prices in India continued to face downward pressure in early 2026, with data from Kerala—the country’s key coffee-producing region—indicating a sustained year-on-year decline despite relative month-on-month stability.

In February 2026, coffee prices stood at Rs 21,088.56 per quintal, marginally down by 0.5 per cent from Rs 21,186.21 in January 2026. However, on an annual basis, prices dropped sharply by 23.4 per cent compared to Rs 27,549.38 recorded in February 2025, reflecting significant market correction.

By April 2026, prices further moderated to Rs 20,366.57 per quintal, registering a marginal increase of 0.1 per cent over March 2026 (Rs 20,345.98). Despite this slight monthly uptick, the year-on-year decline deepened to 25.6 per cent from Rs 27,389.04 in April 2025.

Sustained Downtrend with Signs of Stabilization

The data indicates a clear downward trajectory in coffee prices over the past year, with values slipping below the Rs 21,000 mark by April 2026. While the steep annual decline underscores weak price realization for growers, the minimal month-on-month fluctuations between March and April suggest that prices may be approaching a stabilization phase.

Between January and April 2026, the price movement has remained relatively narrow, fluctuating within a band of approximately Rs 20,300 to Rs 21,200 per quintal. This stability, however, comes at a significantly lower base compared to 2025 levels.

Global and Domestic Factors Weigh on Prices

The sharp year-on-year correction points to broader structural pressures, including global oversupply, easing demand conditions, and shifting trade dynamics. As India’s coffee market is closely linked to international price trends, domestic prices have mirrored global softness.

At the same time, stable month-on-month trends indicate that immediate supply-demand mismatches may have eased, even as the market adjusts to lower equilibrium price levels.

Outlook: Recovery Hinges on Global Demand Revival

While the recent data suggests short-term price stabilization, any meaningful recovery will likely depend on a rebound in global demand and tighter supply conditions. Until then, the Indian coffee market is expected to operate within a subdued pricing environment.

The early 2026 trend highlights a critical inflection point for the sector—where stability has returned, but at the cost of significantly lower price levels compared to the previous year.