Satellite-led crop assessment revises production outlook upward; healthy closing stocks projected at 53 lakh tons

Indian Sugar & Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has released its third advance estimates for the 2025–26 sugar season (SS 2025–26), revising production projections upward after a detailed review by its Executive Committee on February 25, 2026. The updated outlook follows an extensive satellite-based crop assessment combined with field intelligence, historical production analysis, prevailing weather conditions, and real-time yield and sugar recovery data across major cane-growing states.

In early February 2026, ISMA procured high-resolution satellite imagery to evaluate the national sugarcane crop. The imagery enabled a clear assessment of harvested areas, balance cane yet to be crushed, and regional variations in crop progress. These findings were validated through field visits and cross-referenced with recovery trends and projected performance for the remaining crushing period, providing a robust basis for recalibrating output estimates.

The review observed that sugarcane yields in Uttar Pradesh have come in lower than earlier projections, largely due to the state’s ongoing varietal replacement programme, which has temporarily moderated productivity levels. However, sugar recovery in the state has improved compared with last season, partially offsetting the yield impact.

In Maharashtra and Karnataka, yields per unit area were also below initial expectations despite reasonable recovery levels. Industry analysis links this to the early onset of flowering beginning January 2026 across several cane-growing regions, beyond traditional river belts. Abnormal weather patterns, including excess rainfall during critical growth stages, accelerated cane maturity and reduced biomass accumulation, resulting in lighter stalks and lower productivity. Additionally, a higher crush rate this season shortened the effective harvesting window, limiting late-stage biomass gain in standing cane.

Following detailed deliberations, ISMA has pegged gross sugar production for SS 2025–26 at approximately 324 lakh tons. With an estimated 31 lakh tons of sugar expected to be diverted toward ethanol production based on state-wise ethanol supply allocations and anticipated crushing during the balance season, net sugar production is projected at around 293 lakh tons. This represents an increase of roughly 12 percent over last year’s net output.

State-wise estimates reflect shifting regional dynamics. Uttar Pradesh is projected to produce 98.5 lakh tons gross and 92.5 lakh tons net. Maharashtra, the country’s leading producer this season, is estimated at 118 lakh tons gross and 106 lakh tons net. Karnataka is projected at 61.04 lakh tons gross and 48.49 lakh tons net, while Tamil Nadu is estimated at 8.29 lakh tons gross and 8.20 lakh tons net. Gujarat’s production is pegged at 8.76 lakh tons gross and 8.73 lakh tons net, with other states collectively contributing 29.5 lakh tons gross and 29 lakh tons net.

The projected sugar balance for the season indicates a stable supply position. With an opening stock of 50 lakh tons as of October 1, 2025, and net production of 293 lakh tons after ethanol diversion, total availability is estimated at 343 lakh tons. Domestic consumption is projected at 283 lakh tons, while exports are expected to reach 7 lakh tons. Closing stocks as of September 30, 2026, are forecast at approximately 53 lakh tons, suggesting a comfortable inventory buffer heading into the next season.

Looking ahead, early reports indicate improved planting for the 2026–27 season in Maharashtra and Karnataka. With an anticipated opening stock of around 53 lakh tons, the forthcoming crushing season appears promising and adequately positioned to meet domestic demand while supporting India’s ethanol blending programme. ISMA noted that continued satellite monitoring, agronomic adjustments, and policy alignment between sugar and bio-energy objectives will remain central to managing production stability in the coming years.