India’s agricultural export sector is at a pivotal juncture. Facing new challenges such as the 26 per cent reciprocal tariff imposed by the United States, Indian exporters must rethink their market strategies and value chain resilience. Yet, India retains a competitive edge over regional rivals and is uniquely positioned to capture emerging opportunities in global agri-trade. For various stakeholders—exporters, importers, agri-tech firms, logistics providers, and international buyers—this is a critical moment to collaborate and innovate. By leveraging recent trade agreements, investing in advanced infrastructure, and targeting high-growth markets across the EU, Middle East, Africa, Southeast Asia, Russia, and Japan, Indian agribusinesses can offset tariff shocks and unlock new avenues for growth. Strategic partnerships, technology transfer, and value-added processing will be key to building sustainable, mutually beneficial trade relationships.

The tariff imposed by the Trump administration could impact key export items such as seafood (shrimp and prawns), rice, spices, and processed foods. Despite these challenges, India retains a relative competitive advantage over regional competitors such as China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Thailand, who face even higher US tariffs (ranging from 32 per cent to 46 per cent). This tariff differential helps India maintain some presence in the US market despite the increased duties.

The tariff regime also risks reducing India’s agricultural trade surplus with the US by lowering Indian exports and increasing imports from the US, given the stark tariff disparities between the two countries (India imposes much higher tariffs on US agricultural imports). This situation calls for India to diversify its export markets beyond the US and to strengthen its domestic agricultural value chains to better withstand global trade disruptions.

Policy recommendations to mitigate the impact include selective reduction of high tariffs on non-sensitive imports, negotiation of non-tariff safeguards, and medium-term structural reforms to boost productivity and competitiveness in Indian agriculture. These measures aim to balance protecting domestic farmers while maintaining stable trade relations with the US.

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