The global potato industry is undergoing a structural transformation, with processed potato products — particularly frozen fries — driving record trade volumes and reshaping supply chains. According to RaboResearch’s World Potato Map 2025, international trade in frozen potato products surged from $ 7.7 billion in 2019 to $ 13.2 billion in 2024, propelled by both rising demand and higher prices.

“Frozen fries are no longer just a North American and European staple,” said Cindy van Rijswick, Global Strategist for Fresh Produce at Rabobank. “They’ve gone global — with demand surging in Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America — and this is changing the competitive dynamics of the entire potato value chain.”

The report highlights a dramatic shift in competitive positioning, with China and India moving from being net importers to becoming net exporters of frozen processed potato products. China registered an extraordinary 79 per cent compound annual growth rate in exports between 2019 and 2024, while India and Egypt also posted significant gains as domestic processing capacity expanded to serve fast-growing regional markets. Belgium, the Netherlands, and Canada remain global leaders in frozen potato exports, but face constraints from capacity limits and tightening regulations in Europe that could slow future growth. “We expect emerging markets to continue gaining global share as they invest in processing technology, logistics, and market development,” observed Barend Bekamp, Senior Analyst, Food & Agriculture at Rabobank.

The report also flags rising cost pressures, dubbing the trend “potatoflation.” Prices of seed potatoes, energy, and other inputs have pushed export prices upward over the past five years, with US frozen potato products consistently priced higher than those from Belgium and Canada. Global potato production stood at 372 million metric tons in 2024 and has shown little growth in recent years, meaning much of the expansion in processed exports has come from efficiency gains and additional processing capacity rather than larger harvests.

For producers, processors, and investors, RaboResearch stresses that the coming decade will demand significant investments in capacity, technology, and sustainability. Companies will need to build new processing plants, adopt automation, and strengthen their supply chains to secure access to seed potatoes, water, and energy. They must also focus on capturing opportunities in Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America, where per capita consumption of fries and processed potato products remains relatively low compared to Western markets but is rising quickly.

“The next decade will be decisive,” said Eric Gibson, Analyst for Farm Inputs & Crop Production Sustainability at Rabobank. “Companies that expand intelligently and embed sustainability into operations will capture disproportionate share as global consumption patterns shift.”