The findings highlight substantial yield gaps in regions like Bihar, Odisha, and Uttar Pradesh, where the difference between average current yields and attainable yields ranges from 1.7 to 2.4 tons per hectare.
As the world’s largest rice exporter and a crucial player in global food security, India has made impressive strides in agricultural productivity since the Green Revolution. However, a significant gap remains between the rice yields that farmers currently achieve and what they could potentially produce. A recent study published in Nature Communications titled “Context-dependent agricultural intensification pathways to increase rice production in India” reveals innovative strategies to narrow these gaps using data-driven methods, with a special focus on Eastern India.
The study, conducted by researchers from Cornell University, International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), and the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), aimed to identify the barriers holding back rice production in seven key rice-producing states. Analysing data from over 15,800 fields, the researchers discovered that rice yields vary significantly across regions, with average yields ranging from 3.3 to 5.5 tons per hectare.
These findings highlight substantial yield gaps in regions like Bihar, Odisha, and Uttar Pradesh, where the difference between average current yields and attainable yields ranges from 1.7 to 2.4 tons per hectare. This gap presents a significant opportunity to boost rice production through improved management techniques and sustainable farming practices.
The study pinpointed two critical factors affecting rice yields: nitrogen (N) fertilizer uses and irrigation practices. These elements were found to be the main constraints in several states, including Bihar, Odisha, and Eastern Uttar Pradesh. In other areas, issues such as potassium (K) fertilizer application in West Bengal and rice variety selection in Jharkhand also played significant roles in limiting yields.
“Contrary to the common belief that Indian farmers overuse fertilizers, our findings suggest that in many regions, they are not using enough nitrogen to reach their full potential,” explained Dr. Hari Sankar Nayak from the Cornell School of Integrative Plant Science, Soil and Crop Sciences Section, and the study’s lead author. “Optimizing nitrogen and irrigation could significantly elevate productivity, especially in the most responsive fields.”
The study leveraged advanced machine learning techniques to analyse the impact of various agronomic factors on individual field yield prediction. Using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values, researchers were able to assess how each variable influenced rice yields prediction, allowing for more precise recommendations tailored to local conditions.
These analytical models indicated that targeting nitrogen and irrigation improvements in specific fields could yield productivity increases up to three times greater than those achieved by applying general recommendations uniformly across all fields. This precision approach marks a shift from traditional blanket strategies to more nuanced, data-driven interventions. The study’s findings suggest a need for a fundamental shift in agricultural policy towards
