Image Source: OECD

The decade ahead will be shaped by a profound shift in global agricultural dynamics, with middle-income economies set to drive much of the growth in animal‑source food consumption and production. The newly released OECD‑FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025–2034 lays out a roadmap for food systems caught between rising nutritional demand, climate imperatives, and persistent development disparities. As the world braces for volatile geopolitical and environmental shocks, the report signals a call for coordinated action—not only to meet food demand but to do so within planetary limits.

Global production of agricultural and fish commodities is projected to rise by 14 per cent by 2034, led by productivity gains in developing and emerging markets. Livestock and fish products will play a pivotal role in this trajectory, with per‑capita calorie intake expected to grow 6 per cent globally. But the growth is far from uniform: lower‑middle‑income countries will see a 24 per cent surge, while the poorest nations remain stuck at calorie levels far below the benchmarks for a healthy diet. This divergence highlights the dual challenge of raising nutrition standards while keeping food systems equitable and environmentally sustainable.

The momentum in animal‑source foods—driven by rising incomes, urbanization, and dietary transitions—will result in a 17 per cent increase in global output of meat, dairy, and eggs. This comes with a corresponding 7 per cent expansion in global livestock inventories. Yet the environmental cost is far from linear. Direct agricultural greenhouse‑gas emissions are projected to rise by only 6 per cent, suggesting a gradual decoupling of emissions from production growth. Lower carbon intensity across animal‑source food systems is emerging as a byproduct of investment in better practices, smarter technologies, and increasingly data‑driven farm management.

Still, the efficiency gains are not keeping pace with the scale of the challenge. To simultaneously eradicate undernourishment and reduce emissions, global agriculture will require more than incremental change. A 15 per cent improvement in productivity—paired with wide‑scale adoption of emissions‑reducing technologies—could eliminate global hunger while cutting emissions by 7 per cent. The tools exist: from precision agriculture and improved livestock feed to optimized nutrient and water management, scalable interventions can significantly shift the equation. But uptake remains uneven, particularly in regions where investment capital, technical know‑how, and supportive policies are in short supply.

Sub‑Saharan Africa embodies both the opportunity and the constraint. With a beef‑cattle herd three times larger than North America’s but yielding just one‑tenth of the output per animal, the region stands at the crossroads of potential and performance. A 15 per cent growth in its herd is projected over the next decade, yet without transformative productivity gains, this will deepen resource strain without proportional food‑security returns.

India and Southeast Asia are set to account for nearly 40 per cent of global consumption growth by 2034, up from 32 per cent in the last decade. The center of gravity for global food demand is shifting decisively toward the Indo‑Pacific, where growing populations and purchasing power are reshaping consumption patterns. China, once the dominant driver, will see its share of consumption growth fall to 13 per cent from 32 per cent, signaling a maturation of its food economy. These shifts will have ripple effects on global trade, input markets, and nutrition strategies.

Global cereal production is forecast to grow at 1.1 per cent annually, primarily through yield improvements. However, expansion in harvested area is expected to slow significantly, rising just 0.14 per cent annually. This caps the land‑based potential for output growth, underscoring the urgency of closing yield gaps and minimizing post‑harvest losses. By 2034, 40 percent of cereal production will be consumed directly, with 33 per cent diverted to animal feed and the remainder channeled to biofuels and industrial applications. With biofuel demand increasing at just under 1 per cent annually—particularly in Brazil, India, and Indonesia—food‑versus‑fuel trade‑offs may resurface in political and policy debates.

Despite overall production gains, price pressures could strain vulnerable producers. The outlook anticipates that improving productivity will exert downward pressure on real commodity prices, potentially squeezing smallholder margins. Many producers in developing regions lack the financial and institutional capacity to absorb this volatility or to invest in the innovations required to remain competitive. Supportive policies—ranging from targeted subsidies to risk insurance and extension services—will be critical to avoid widening the inequality gap within rural economies.

On the global stage, agricultural trade flows will remain a central balancing mechanism. By 2034, an estimated 22 per cent of global calories will cross international borders before reaching consumers. In a fragmented and often unpredictable geopolitical landscape, the stability of agricultural trade regimes becomes even more vital. The report reinforces the role of multilateral cooperation in sustaining open markets, preventing protectionist spirals, and ensuring equitable food access.

High‑income countries are entering a different phase of food transition. Per‑capita consumption of fats and sweeteners is expected to decline, driven by public‑health awareness, shifting preferences, and regulatory changes. As these markets plateau or contract in traditional segments, the growth frontier increasingly lies in emerging and frontier economies.

The Outlook offers a sober but forward‑looking perspective on the global food system. It reaffirms the urgency of doubling down on agricultural innovation—not simply to produce more, but to produce better. The next decade will be a proving ground for whether productivity, climate resilience, and nutrition can advance in concert—or if global agriculture will fracture under the weight of competing demands. What’s clear is that growth is no longer enough. The quality, distribution, and sustainability of that growth will define the future of global food security.