The agriculture industry will greatly benefit from the private forecaster Skymet Weather’s prediction of a “normal” monsoon for India this year

According to Skymet, monsoon rainfall across the country will be approximately 103 per cent of the LPA. The LPA is 868.6 mm, which is the historical average rainfall for the four-month season. Skymet’s projection falls safely within the range of 96 per cent to 104 per cent of this average rainfall, which is considered “normal” (with a potential error margin of +/- 5 per cent). This points to a generally typical rainfall pattern nationwide, which is essential for farming.

The managing director of Skymet, Jatin Singh, said that a number of important atmospheric conditions seem favorable. The modest La Niña conditions that were previously recorded are now waning. Importantly, this season excludes the emergence of El Niño, a phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that is frequently associated with reduced monsoon rainfall. Rather, “neutral” ENSO conditions are anticipated generally.

Overall, things are looking up. But according to Skymet, shifting atmospheric conditions could cause the monsoon to begin slowly. The second half of the season may see more rainfall. There might be increased activity in July and August, which are crucial months for agricultural sowing.

Geographically, Western and South India are expected to see good rainfall, according to the projection. It is anticipated that important agricultural states like Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra will receive enough moisture. Excessive rainfall may occur on areas around the Western Ghats, such as Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, and Goa. However, portions of Northeast India and the hilly northern regions could see rainfall that is below average, according to the projection.