As climate change intensifies, the cost to maintain crop yields will likely increase
A recent study by Stanford University, US has revealed that while yields have increased overall- likely due to new technologies and management approaches- the staple crop has become significantly more sensitive to drought conditions. The research, published on October 26 in Nature Food, uses a novel approach based on wide differences in the moisture-holding capabilities among soils.
Despite concerns about resistant weeds, climate change, and many other factors, the industry has set record yields in five of the last seven years. As climate change intensifies, however, the cost to maintain crop yields will likely increase.
Using county soil maps and satellite-based yield estimates, among other data, the researchers examined fields in the Corn Belt, a nine-state region of the Midwest that accounts for about two-thirds of US corn production.
Even within a single county, they found a wide range of soil moisture retention, with some soils able to hold twice as much water as others. As might be expected, there were generally higher yields for soils that held more water. They found yield sensitivity to soil water storage in the region increased by 55 percent on average between 1999 and 2018, with larger increases in drier states.
The results made clear soil’s ability to hold water was the primary reason for yield loss. In some cases, soil’s ability to hold an increased amount of moisture was three times more effective at increasing yields than an equivalent increase in precipitation.
A variety of factors, such as increased crop water needs due to increased plant sowing density may be at play. Despite robust corn yields, the cost of drought and global demand for corn are rising simultaneously.
