Monday, 9 June 2025
Pegged at 478 million tonnes, FAO’s estimate for global cereal trade in 2024/25 points to a 6.9 percent decrease below the 2023/24 level.
As the 2024/25 (July/June) marketing season concludes, global cereal production for 2024 is estimated at 2 853 million tonnes, representing a slight decrease of 0.1 percent compared to the 2023 output. This decline is attributed to a reduction in coarse grain production, particularly maize, which offset the increases in wheat and rice outturns. At 2 875 million tonnes, world cereal utilization in 2024/25 is estimated 1.2 percent above its 2023/24 level, reflecting growth in utilization of coarse grains (mostly maize and sorghum) and rice. As a result of the growth in utilisation amidst stagnant production, cereal stocks at the end of seasons in 2025 are estimated 2.0 percent below their opening levels, at 865 million tonnes. The decline in cereal stocks stems entirely from a drawdown of barley and maize, which is partially offset by stock buildups of rice and, to a lesser extent, wheat. Pegged at 478 million tonnes, FAO’s estimate for global cereal trade in 2024/25 points to a 6.9 percent decrease below the 2023/24 level. The decline is driven by a sharp fall in global trade of wheat and all major coarse grains. By contrast, global trade of rice in 2024/25 is estimated above its 2023/24 level.
Looking forward to the 2025/26 season, world cereal production (including rice in milled equivalent) is expected to reach a record 2 911 million tonnes in 2025, surpassing the 2024 output by 2.1 percent. Production of all major cereals is anticipated to rise, with the largest year-on-year increase (in percentage terms) forecast for maize and the smallest for wheat. Maize, rice and sorghum outputs are all predicted to reach new record highs.
World cereal utilisation is forecast to increase by 0.8 percent in 2025/26, reaching 2 898 million tonnes. Global food consumption of cereals is predicted to grow by 0.9 percent from 2024/25, while feed use is forecast to expand by 0.5 percent, with increases expected for all major cereals. Other uses of cereals are projected to rise by 1.0 percent, led by increased uses of wheat and rice.
With world cereal production expected to exceed utilisation in 2025/26, world cereal stocks are predicted to expand by 1.0 percent (8.3 million tonnes) above their opening levels to 873.6 million tonnes. This would mark a partial recovery from the contraction recorded in 2024/25. The bulk of the anticipated increase is due to higher inventories expected for coarse grains, while a smaller rise is expected for rice. By contrast, wheat stocks are forecast to decline. Based on the current forecasts, the global cereal stock-to-use ratio should remain close to the 2024/25 level, at 29.8 percent.
After contracting by nearly 7.0 percent in 2024/25, global cereal trade is predicted to partially recover in 2025/26, rising by 1.9 percent to 487.1 million tonnes. The rebound is expected to be led by a 3.8 percent growth in global wheat trade, supported by a modest 0.9 percent increase in coarse grain trade. By contrast, international trade in rice is predicted to contract by 0.7 percent.
